A little while ago, I posted my opinion that, despite increasing speculation about a new civil war in the United States, it was very unlikely that such a thing could happen. In fact, I could see no plausible path to that outcome.
That's changed a little. Now I do see a possible path, though I still don't expect it to happen.
The pathway in question is essentially a worst-case scenario. Happily for us all, the worst case rarely comes to pass. This may not be the best of all possible worlds, but it's not the worst of all possible worlds, either.
Still, occasionally the perfect storm does happen. That's what it would take to bring about the cataclysmic outcome of a new civil war or, at the very least, massively increased civil strife.
As you know, the Democratic controlled House is moving forward with an attempt to impeach President Trump. The Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has put the hearings on an accelerated timetable with an eye toward holding a final vote on impeachment as early as Thanksgiving.If a majority of the House votes to impeach, the indictment moves to the Senate for adjudication.
Meanwhile, President Trump and his lawyers insist that the process is illegal, because Pelosi has not held a vote formally authorizing an impeachment inquiry. Therefore, they say, subpoenas issued by the house with regard to this matter will be ignored. The president's lawyer yesterday issued a combative eight-page letter laying out this position.
I'm not going to get into the pros and cons of this debate. I'm no legal scholar, and it's irrelevant to the main point of this post. The point is that we have a deadlock between two branches of government, with the legislative branch insisting it has the right to subpoena witnesses and the executive branch refusing to comply.
Now we come to our worst-case scenario. Suppose the House does vote to impeach, which is likely, because only a simple majority is needed. Then suppose that the Senate votes to convict Trump and remove him from office. Trump is already on record as saying that the whole process is illegal and unconstitutional and constitutes an attempted coup. He would be unlikely to agree to leave office in response to an impeachment and conviction that he regards as fundamentally corrupt and unlawful.
That's when all hell breaks loose. In effect, we would have two governments – the Trump White House and a parallel government set up by the Democrats, presumably with Pelosi in charge (since she is next in the line of succession after Vice President Pence). Each would accuse the other of being illegitimate. Partisans around the country would be sharply divided. It's a near certainty that violence would break out in the streets as radical groups like Antifa and Proud Boys battle it out. Mass demonstrations in support of each "government" might start out peacefully, but could easily degenerate into chaos.
The military might even be called on to oust Trump from the White House and place him under arrest. But what if some factions of the military side with Trump instead? Then you have a real civil war.
And even if it doesn't get that far, you'd have something very much like the situation in Kansas in the years prior to the first Civil War, when two rival governments were set up by pro-slavery and anti-slavery factions, leading to raids into each other's turf, with lynchings and other violence. The territory-turned-state became known as Bleeding Kansas; it was a wound that would not heal. Imagine Bleeding Kansas on a national scale.
Now, as I said, this is a worst-case scenario. Our saving grace is that the Senate will probably perform the duty envisioned for it by the founding fathers, who saw the Senate as the saucer that cools the steaming hot cup of tea. The contentious, hotheaded House stands for the steaming tea in this analogy, while the Senate, with its arcane rules and gentlemanly traditions, is meant to slow things down and allow cooler heads to prevail.
Specifically with regard to impeachment, the Senate procedure requires an actual trial, which would have to conform with rules of evidence and other legal precedents. More important, conviction requires a two-thirds majority, meaning that 67 senators would have to vote to remove Trump from office. Given that Republicans have a majority of the Senate, it's almost impossible that the magic number of 67 can be reached. One or two Republicans, like Mitt Romney of Utah, might defect, but then again one or two Democrats from conservative states, like Joe Manchin of West Virginia, might choose to stand with Trump. It seems unlikely in the extreme that anything close to 67 senators will agree to evict Trump from the Oval Office, especially with a presidential election less than a year away by then.
And we should be glad about this, no matter what our partisan leanings. It's far better for the country to have the impeachment effort fizzle out in the Senate than to have a Bleeding Kansas or civil war scenario play out from coast to coast.
Ultimately, I think the impeachment kerfuffle will come to little or nothing, but there's always the chance of a perfect storm. Already some Democrats, like Rashida Tlaib, are openly speculating about how they would hunt down and incarcerate Trump in the event of a conviction. Others have imagined first impeaching Pence, and then forcing Trump to resign so that Pelosi could become president. These speculations are, to put it mildly, unhelpful. Whether they know it or not, these people are pouring water on a grease fire and risking an explosion.
Both sides are caught up in a dangerous contest, escalating the stakes, essentially playing a game of chicken. Sometimes that game ends in a disastrous collision. Let's hope this time it doesn't.
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