Reconsidering Dannion

Back in 2005 I wrote a post about NDEr Dannion Brinkley, who reported having an apocalyptic vision of the world's fate during his near-death experience. I found that many of the predictions had not come to pass.  

Recently I took a new look at that post. What I found is that some of the predictions now look a little better than they did nine years ago — perhaps an indication of how rocky the last decade has been. 

One thing that remains true is that the dates are mostly wrong. Events that were supposed to occur in the 1990s took place later, or have yet to transpire. Many details are wrong also. Still, Brinkley's disturbing vision is a little bit closer to reality today.

One thing to keep in mind is that Brinkley had his NDE in 1975 but didn't publish a book about it until 1994. As I wrote in the original post, 

1994 is a long time after 1975. Unless there is independent verification of Brinkley's claim that he predicted these events as early as 1975, we are justified in being a bit skeptical … Even so, let's assume that Brinkley did indeed see these visions back in 1975. How accurate are they?

For extensive quotes from Brinkley's various "visions," see the original post. Here I’ll summarize briefly. 

Visions 1 — 3 depicted general malaise in America, growing national debt, and urban violence: riots and drive-bys. An actor with the initials RR became president. 

This is all true, but much of it was in the air by 1975. However, it is fair to say that the national debt has become an even greater concern in recent years, and urban violence has now escalated to the point that big-city police departments are equipped and trained like paramilitary forces. 

Visions 4 and 5 showed the Middle East in turmoil. Jordan ceased to exist. A joint Arab-Israeli police was formed and became known for excessive brutality. Israel became isolated from the world community. The price of oil caused economic shocks, while Syria and China conspired to produce missiles capable of delivering chemical and biological agents. 

Accuracy? Well, Jordan is still around. The Israelis and Palestinians have discussed forming joint police patrols. From 2013: 

Palestinian, Israeli, and Jordanian police chiefs have been quietly meeting for the past 18 months (under the auspices of the U.S.-based Police Executive Research Forum), and ... Israeli and Palestinian police forces may soon begin joint patrols ...

It is true that Israel finds itself increasingly isolated. I don't think Syria and China are trying to build missiles together, and right now Syria (torn by civil war) has other priorities. 

Vision 6. Chernobyl and a second nuclear accident. The USSR collapsed, and the new Russia was dominated by the Georgian mafia. 

Brinkley identifies the second nuclear accident as possibly being in Norway. That’s incorrect, but the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan could conceivably fit the general description. The USSR did collapse (though not because of Chernobyl), and the Russian mafia is very active in Georgia. 

Vision 7. A Russian strongman on a white horse emerged as a world leader on enviornmentalism. 

Vladimir Putin is hardly known as an environmentalist, but he is a quintessential strongman and has actually been pictured riding bare-chested on a horse as part of a relentless PR campaign to emphasize his macho qualities. 

Visions 8,9. Russia and China clashed along their border.

Happily this hasn’t happened yet. 

Visions 10, 11. Economic collapse worldwide. Devastating earthquakes in the US. Iran and Iraq obtained nukes and wmd. Wars in the Middle East. A chemical attack on the water supply of France. Riots in Egypt put religious fanatics in power. 

There were riots in Egypt that led to the collapse of the Mubarak regime and the temporary rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, who certainly qualify as religious fanatics. The Brotherhood's time in the spotlight was short lived; they were quickly ousted by the Egyptian military. Iran is apparently on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons. There has been no terrorist attack on the French water supply and no worldwide economic collapse, though there have been escalating terrorist attacks in general and mounting economic problems around the world. The financial crash of 2008-2009 roiled markets and led to huge anxiety, even panic, in the US. 

Vision 12. A brilliant biological engineer developed a virus that could manufacture computer chips, which became ubiquitous and eventually were implanted in virtually all humans, with dystopian sci-fi consequences. 

No such developments have occurred, though some bio-engineers are working on "biochips," and implantable nanotechnology is very likely in the near future. 

Vision 13 advised that these dire outcomes could still be changed if people made better choices. 

In summary, the dates were clearly wrong, and many of the details are wrong, but Brinkley's forecast appears marginally more accurate than it did in 2005.

Again, we need to remember that the book came out in 1994, meaning that many of these “predictions” could have been made after the fact. But if we assume that Brinkley really did foresee these developments in 1975, and if we grant him considerable leeway on the timetable, then there is some truth in what he said. How much of it is explainable as logical extrapolation from what was already happening, or as generalized disaster scenarios that could occur to almost anyone, is debatable.

Certainly it's not correct to claim that Brinkley's predictions were uncannily accurate, as some enthusiastic proponents have said. But they do look a little less far-fetched today, and nine years after my original post, I find it harder to dispute the claim that the world is headed very much in the wrong direction. 

It's also worth noting that there are questions about Brinkley's medical condition at the time of his NDE, and questions about his biographical claims. There's a long, balanced discussion of Brinkley here. 

Comments

[Lynn]

"In the two-slit experiment one can choose to demonstrate either of two contradictory things: that each object was a compact entity coming through a single slit or that each was a spread out entity coming through both. Similar experiments have been done with photons, electrons, atoms, large molecules, and are being attempted with yet larger objects such as live viruses (Clauser 2010). We will just refer to "objects.

"Today, quantum weirdness is demonstrated in increasingly large systems (Haroche & Raimond 2006), and interpretations of "what it all means" proliferate (Elitzur et. al. 2006). Essentially every interpretation ultimately requires the intrusion of the conscious observer to account for the classical-like world of our experience (Squires 1994, Penrose, R. 2005).

Life is about the choices we make. Although we are not aware of it, at a microscopic level, each choice changes the universe.

Whether Brinkley was gifted with the information will be debatable, but even if he saw events occur as they did, they may not necessarily happen. People may not act in ways to produce that particular outcome, and although people tend to be habitual ( are reasonably predictable), they aren;t always. So the way I see it, the future simply cannot be set in stone.

As I have mentioned, I have had this experience myself, been told something that didn't happen, and then have my guides intimate to me that what they told me was correct, but that "fate" ( an intervening course of action) had changed the future.

Makes sense, we all have free will, can change our mind, change our life course etc. Annoyingly frustrating as a psychic though, we all want accuracy, dependability, but life's about having free choice and change really. Lyn x.

[Leewoof]

Hi Michael,

Thanks for a good survey.

I'm skeptical of other-world travelers who make lots of very specific predictions about material-world events.

First, I agree with Lynn that the future is not set in stone. Our choices affect what happens.

But more than that, someone who claims to have had his spiritual senses open, but coming out of that experience focuses on physical events, has missed the point of the experience.

Predictions of political upheavals and nuclear explosions are mere parlor tricks. The greater events and realities of our existence are all spiritual. They have to do with the rise and fall of enlightenment and of mutual love.

[Juan]

"Makes sense, we all have free will, can change our mind, change our life course etc. Annoyingly frustrating as a psychic though, we all want accuracy, dependability, but life's about having free choice and change really."

So how can we know if Brinkley had a genuine non-inferential knowledge of future events? I think that these predictions are a mix of suspicion based on the present and luck.

[Michael Prescott]

"I think that these predictions are a mix of suspicion based on the present and luck."

I'm inclined to see them that way also.

[Paqdream]

"I think that these predictions are a mix of suspicion based on the present and luck."

I wouldn't describe it this way though I agree the "correlations" (if they can be described that way) are not compelling. This is because, in my own experience it is quite possible to have two equally compelling dreams, one of which does convincingly connect to a later real world event and the other doesn't. In both cases, there is no strong justification for a claim that either was influenced by wishful thinking. The question why they don't match up is valid, but from the available information, it is premature to assign a cause.

AP

[AAG]

I'm reading Dannion predictions at http://www.qsl.net/w5www/brinkley.html and I'm still not impressed. Like you said, the book was published in the 90s so the "RR" president, Gulf War and the Chernobyl predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. I find it suspicious that these predictions, which are probably his most accurate predictions, came to pass before the 1994 publication date.

The other "accurate" prophecies seem sufficiently vague and predictable that he could have just guessed them based on his intuition on current events. Environmentalists/peace activists have been warning about another nuclear incident for years, and Dannion couldn't even predict the correct country. Wars in the middle east, well duh! Russia has a long history of "strong men" and so far none of them is an environmentalist. Islamists taking over Egypt is an accurate prediction, but given that the Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt, is that really so hard to guess? It would have been more impressive if he had guessed the Islamist insurgency in, say, Mali, which is generally off most ppl's radar in the west. In any case he said religious fanatics would come to power following a collapse of democracy in Egypt when in fact the Islamists were democratically elected.

So many of his predictions haven't come true at all. For example, France publishes a book ticking off Arabs, resulting in their water supply being targeted. If he had predicted Denmark instead of France, that would have been *somewhat* more impressive, because it could be a reference to the Danish cartoon scandal. But, no, that really isn't even close.

The only thing else I can think of even remotely of note is Saudi Arabia forming an alliance with China and Syria. Historically, Saudi-Chinese relations were strained due to the former's recognition of Taiwan, but in the past few decades the two countries have gotten closer. 2006 marked the first time a Saudi head of state visited China. However, relations between China and SA began in 1990, before Dannion's publication date, so the prediction isn't as impressive as it sounds. In any case the gov't of SA hates the Shia government of Syria, so that part of the prediction is just wrong.

Overall, I'd say Dannion's predictions are just as irrelevant as they ever were. BTW It's worth pointing out that the LA times found evidence that he exaggerated his military service, which calls his credibility into question: http://articles.latimes.com/1995-03-24/news/ls-46593_1_death-experience

[Bruce Siegel]

"But more than that, someone who claims to have had his spiritual senses open, but coming out of that experience focuses on physical events, has missed the point of the experience."

Leewoof, in fairness to Brinkley, his first book "Saved By The Light," though it does list his questionable predictions, is also a remarkable story of spiritual and personal transformation. While he does seems flawed (like the rest of us), I also get the feeling he's a big-hearted guy who has been profoundly changed and bettered by his NDE.

[Kathleen]

I have to quibble here on two things: first, crime rates, including murder rates, have fallen. The rise of paramilitary U.S. police is probably more due to police forces getting used military equipment for free. Second, the national deficit has gone down, cut by more than half since 2009 - for instance, see http://tinyurl.com/lbfc6pq

Sadly, if things keep going on as they are, I wouldn't be surprised if, in the far distant future, the U.S. national security apparatus forced people to be implanted with some kind of microchip.

[Michael Prescott]

Kathleen, you wrote, "... the national deficit has gone down, cut by more than half since 2009."

The article you cited is a discussion of the deficit, not the national debt. Though I'm not sure the national debt is as great a threat as some people think, it has indeed increased a great deal since the 1970s.

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm

[Ian]

I think Mr. Brinkley's predictions were probably the result of seeing a possible future, one of infinitely many that could happen. Most of the spiritual material I've read says that while humanity's collective destiny is pretty much set (becoming godlike/merging with God, etc.) the length of time it'll take to get there is completely up to us, due to our free will.

Considering the untold trillions of things we all do everyday, it seems logical that the future can and does change day to day. Perhaps the visions of catastrophes and disasters are meant to be a warning, a wake-up call if you will, for us to live better lives and make good changes. The best prophecy about a disaster, after all, is the one that doesn't come true.

The Near Death website has a really interesting page on seeing the future in NDE's that's quite interesting, especially on how our efforts can and do make a difference (http://www.near-death.com/experiences/research32.html).

[Amos Oliver Doyle]

Well, Dannion's stories are what they are. But, when one is false in some things, as his report of his military career, (How stupid can he be as military history is easily verified or not) how can he be trusted to be true in other things? Too many of these after-death reports (OBEs) seem to be an easy way to sell a book and as in Dannion's case, to publish other books and to have a lifetime career. He and others who do this do a great disservice to mankind and the advancement of knowledge. - AOD

[Amos Oliver Doyle]

For what it is worth, here is a YouTube video concerning a reporter's account of what Dannion reported 1 day after he was allegedly struck by lightning. - AOD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4BeWRddAjc

[Juan]

"I think Mr. Brinkley's predictions were probably the result of seeing a possible future, one of infinitely many that could happen."

But if this is true, then what is the difference between this and be able to imagine possible futures? I do not see the difference.

On the other hand, I focus on cases where people have usually oniric experiences that seem to refer to events in the near future
with great emotional burden for the subject because here is where I think the precognition occurs.

[Claudio from Italy]

Hi, Michael.
May be that Dannion didn't see a terrific increase of murdered women and babies. Dunno if in the USA they're happening at the same rate than here in Italy (a woman is killed every 2 days and -some days ago- an 8 y.o. kid has been misteriously strangled in Sicily) so I'm wondering if many karmas are now being equalized or if the powers of hell are fighting hard against the Light.

[Sil]

Off topic but I just published an interview I conducted with Skeptiko host Alex Tsakiris over at my blog. Check it out :)

http://silssociology.blogspot.com/2014/12/a-short-interview-with-skeptiko-host.html

[James Oeming]

Thank you Sil. The Tsakiris interview and your blog are interesting!

*******************

Here's a different off-topic link from Bernardo Kastrup. It's an article regarding both the light and dark side of James Randi, that appeared in the Daily Telegraph, a UK newspaper.

The article is entitled "James Randi: debunking the king of the debunkers".

In the article, Randi acknowledges some of his shortcomings.

An excerpt:

"...before we parted, I told [Randi] my research painted a picture of a clever man who is often right, but who has a certain element to his personality which leads him to overstate.

'Oh I agree,' [Randi] said.

'And sometimes lie. Get carried away.'

'Oh I agree. No question of that. I don’t know whether the lies are conscious lies all the time,' he said. 'But there can be untruths.'

It was a brave and surprising moment."

******************

Here's the link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/film/film-news/11270453/James-Randi-debunking-the-king-of-the-debunkers.html