Misinformational cascade

Here's an interesting opinion piece in the New York Times about scientific consensus and how it can go wrong.

The author's specific concern is the conventional wisdom on nutrition (fat = bad), which he believes to be in error. But to me what's interesting are his comments on consensus thinking in general.

We like to think that people improve their judgment by putting their minds together, and sometimes they do. The studio audience at “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” usually votes for the right answer. But suppose, instead of the audience members voting silently in unison, they voted out loud one after another. And suppose the first person gets it wrong.

If the second person isn’t sure of the answer, he’s liable to go along with the first person’s guess. By then, even if the third person suspects another answer is right, she’s more liable to go along just because she assumes the first two together know more than she does. Thus begins an “informational cascade” as one person after another assumes that the rest can’t all be wrong.

Because of this effect, groups are surprisingly prone to reach mistaken conclusions even when most of the people started out knowing better, according to the economists Sushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer and Ivo Welch. If, say, 60 percent of a group’s members have been given information pointing them to the right answer (while the rest have information pointing to the wrong answer), there is still about a one-in-three chance that the group will cascade to a mistaken consensus.

Cascades are especially common in medicine as doctors take their cues from others, leading them to overdiagnose some faddish ailments (called bandwagon diseases) and overprescribe certain treatments (like the tonsillectomies once popular for children). Unable to keep up with the volume of research, doctors look for guidance from an expert — or at least someone who sounds confident.

It seems easy enough to apply this to mainstream science's rote rejection of all evidence for the paranormal. The overwhelming majority of scientists have never studied psi and "look for guidance from an expert  - or at least someone who sounds confident." Skeptics like James Randi, Paul Kurtz, and Michael Shermer never lack for confidence, at least in  their public pronouncements.

And here's what happens when dissenters try to challenge the consensus:

The [dissenting] scientists, despite their impressive credentials, were accused of bias because some of them had done research financed by the food industry. And so the informational cascade morphed into what the economist Timur Kuran calls a reputational cascade, in which it becomes a career risk for dissidents to question the popular wisdom.

With skeptical scientists ostracized, the public debate and research agenda became dominated by the fat-is-bad school.

In the case of psi, it is unquestionably "a career risk for dissidents to question the popular wisdom." No, they won't be accused of having been co-opted by industry; instead, they'll be accused of being mentally illy or hopelessly gullible or pathetically unprofessional or desperate for media attention, or all of the above.

Hat tip: Ace of Spades.

Comments

[Larry Boy]

Richard Milton's 'Alternative Science' goes into these subjects at some depth, and specifically in relation to parapsychology. Absolutely fascinating book.

[Chris]

Personally speaking, it was only when I went on a low-carb eating plan and actually increased my fat intake that I began to lose weight.

In terms of fat not being quite the devil it has been made out to be, this site has some interesting information:

www.westonaprice.org

Once you're willing to look the beyond the mainstream consensus reality, you're apt to find some interesting treasures. Of course, the human tendency to jump on the bandwagon of shaky evidence applies to alternative types as well. I have no other way to account for the fact that so many otherwise intelligent people seem to be convinced that the world will be transformed into a utopia in 2012.

The article excerpted in this post describes how easily the motives of scientists with unpopular opinions are questioned.

The [dissenting] scientists, despite their impressive credentials, were accused of bias because some of them had done research financed by the food industry.

We've seen it on this blog too...

http://michaelprescott.typepad.com/michael_prescotts_blog/2007/05/science_is_a_sc.html

Two salient points leap out at us from the above paragraphs: First, Professor Peter Piper's work is funded by the government, and second, it's clear that only more tests - more adequate tests, more rigorous tests, more modern tests, i.e., more expensive tests - can get to the bottom of this whole issue.

Before believing in accusations of misconduct in research paranormal or otherwise you need to investigate the truth yourself. You can't trust just anyone.

[Tony M]

I once wrote a piece stating that I believe to be true three things that fly in the face of conventional wisdom. They are:

- That the Earl of Oxford wrote the poems and plays known as Shakespeare’s
- That our personalities survive our bodily death
- That carbohydrates and not fat are responsible for obesity.

I find the case for each of these to be compelling and persuasive to anyone willing to examine the evidence without prejudice. How amusing that however indirectly Michael has introduced the third of my controversial beliefs. If this becomes an on going discussion here I would have a single blog for all of my obsessive arguments.

[Ben]

Michael,

Thanks for adding a post. The discussion on Gary Schwartz quickly became pointless.

[drew hempel]

Apparently Harvard scientists are up the task when it comes to handing over peer-reviewed evidence for psi abilities:

Title: External Qi of Yan Xin Qigong differentially regulates the Akt and extracellular signal-regulated kinase pathways and is cytotoxic to cancer cells but not to normal cells
Author(s): Yan X (Yan, Xin), Shen H (Shen, Hua), Jiang HJ (Jiang, Hongjian), Zhang CS (Zhang, Chengsheng), Hu D (Hu, Dan), Wang J (Wang, Jun), Wu XQ (Wu, Xinqi)
Source: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOCHEMISTRY & CELL BIOLOGY 38 (12): 2102-2113 2006
Document Type: Article
Language: English
Cited References: 63 Times Cited: 0 Find Related Records Information
Abstract: Long-term clinical observations and ongoing studies have shown significant antitumor effect of external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong which originated from traditional Chinese medicine. In order to understand the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the antitumor effect of external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong, we have examined its cytotoxic effect on BxPC3 pancreatic cancer cells and its effect on the Akt and extracellular signal-regulated kinase pathways. We found that external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong dramatically inhibited basal phosphorylation levels of Akt and extracellular signal-regulated kinases, epidermal growth factor-mediated phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinases, and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase activity. External Qi of Yan Xin Qigong also inhibited constitutive and inducible activities of nuclear factor-kappa 13, a target of the Akt and epidermal growth factor receptor pathways. Furthermore, a single 5 min exposure of BxPC3 cells to external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong induced apoptosis, accompanied by a dramatic increase of the sub-G1 cell population, DNA fragmentation, and cleavage of caspases 3, 8 and 9, and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase. Prolonged treatment with external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong caused rapid lysis of BxPC3 cells. In contrast, treatment of fibroblasts with external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong induced transient activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinases and Akt, and caused no cytotoxic effect. These findings suggest that external Qi of Yan Xin Qigong may differentially regulate these survival pathways in cancer versus normal cells and exert cytotoxic effects preferentially on cancer cells, and that it could potentially be a valuable approach for therapy of pancreatic carcinomas. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Author Keywords: Akt; ERK1/2; external Qi; Yan Xin Qigong; pancreatic cancer
KeyWords Plus: EPIDERMAL-GROWTH-FACTOR; NF-KAPPA-B; PANCREATIC-CARCINOMA CELLS; FACTOR RECEPTOR; IN-VITRO; PHOSPHATIDYLINOSITOL 3-KINASE; INDUCED APOPTOSIS; K-RAS; ULTRASOUND; INHIBITION
Addresses: Yan X (reprint author), Inst Chongqing Trad Chinese Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China
Inst Chongqing Trad Chinese Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China
New Med Sci Res Inst, New York, NY 10107 USA
Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Boston, MA 02114 USA
Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Dana Farber Canc Inst, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA
E-mail Addresses: [email protected]
Publisher: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
Subject Category: Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; Cell Biology

[Kevin]

The herd instinct manifests itself once again, along with the fear which accompanies ostracism. This effect extends far into social trends. Anyone for a tattoo?

[Michael Prescott]

>We've seen it on this blog too...

Yeah, you're right. That was probably the worst post I've ever written. If I ever take the time to go through this whole blog and delete the posts that embarrass me, that one will be at the top of the list.

Oh, and I'll delete the one where I said Dragon Wars looked like a good movie, too.

[Alex]

"That was probably the worst post I've ever written."

Hey, it happens to the best of us.

[Cyrus]

The 2012 thing infuriates me. I am going to stage a protest January 1st 2013, I will have picketers with signs that read "Look, nothing happened, you gullible windbags!"

[Michael Prescott]

I'm not really up on the 2012 controversy. Does this have anything to do with the Mayan calendar, which supposedly predicts some kind of cosmic shift in 2012?

[Tony]

yeah,

As I understand it, the Mayan calendar doesn't actually predict anything, it just ends (and restarts, the Mayans believed time was circular).

But people have attached all sorts of doomsday and utopian predictions to that, sort of like we saw with the year 2000.

[drew hempel]

Wow this is so cool. I got this from http://dailygrail.com.

You stare at this spinning lady and it determines which side of the brain you are using!

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22556281-661,00.html

Now Greg Taylor who posted this at Dailygrail says he's definitely right-brain.

At first I was left brain. Then, while sitting in full-lotus the whole time, at first I just thought how hot the lady was... then I scrolled down more so I could see all her feet. Then I concentrated and all of a sudden she switched from left-brain to right brain! But then she switched right back to left-brain. I concentrated more -- and pretty soon I was able to make her switch back and forth at will! Amazing!

[Marcel Cairo]

Hey, Drew. I did the test earlier this morning and I found that the dancing lady kept switching back and forth for me without me being able to control it in any way.

More evidence that people like me who are obsessed with the whole survival of consciousness theory are funny in the head. :-)

[Marcel Cairo]

...and on the topic of 2012, a few weeks ago I listened to Whitley Streiber's Dreamland podcast where he interviewed and fought with fellow 2012 author, Daniel Pinchbeck, over whose view of the apocalypse would dominate the world in 2012. It was quite comical to listen to.

You can read more about the "War of the Future Worlds" here

[Ryan]

I agree with Drew. Wow! Is that a genuine gestalt switch? or does the animation actually switch. If the latter then it is a bit rubbish. Really can't tell.

[Varenius]

The trick for me to switch between the two was to look only at the feet, then look at the full figure once the new direction was in my mind.

[Filip]

About 2012, there are a lot of interpretations of the calendar. The one that ùakes 2012 interesting is probobly from the book Maya Cosmogenis 2012 from John Major Jenkins.
The interesting thing that he demonstrates is that on Dec. 21, 2012, the end-date for the mayan calender, the long-term “precessional” orientation of the Earth’s axis is perfectly aligned with the center of the galaxy. In other words the December solstice sun aligns with the intersection of the ecliptic and the Milky Way in era-2012. The alignment in 2012 happens once in 26000 years.
That the mayans knew about this, is just crazy.

It's not only the mayans that spoke about 2012, there are other traditions that spoke about it and some very strange sources like Terrence Mckenna who got the same date during his mushroom trips.... :)

The new age theory is, that we are drifting with our solar system in new space with a diffrent kind of energy which will have an effect on our whole solar system, our bodies included. They are actually seeing global warming as an effect of this and some people say there is an interplanetary climate change going on, so it's not only visible on earth but on every planet in our solar system. Check David Wilcockx his work for more information on that, www.divinecosmos.com