Yes, I think that many reported paranormal phenomena are real. And yes, this includes the abilities of some psychics and mediums. But do I believe in every psychic who shows up on TV? Not by a long shot.
Case in point: Sylvia Browne.
Browne is one of today's most popular self-proclaimed psychics, a regular fixture on The Montel Williams Show, and a frequent guest on Larry King Live. She has put out a large number of books dealing with everything from the interpretation of dreams to the building of the pyramids. I know people who are big fans. I must admit I am not one of them.
To me, Browne's technique consists of a few simple rules of thumb. First, tell people what they want to hear. If an audience member asks, "Will I meet Mr. Right?", be sure to answer, "Yes, absolutely. You'll meet him two and a half years from now, and he'll be dark-haired and Mediterranean ..."
Second, as far as possible say things that can't be checked. No one is going to follow up with that audience member two and a half years later to see how the prediction turned out.
Third, be as specific as possible about things that can be checked, and as vague as possible about things that can't. In her book on ghosts, Browne reports that she knows who killed Nicole Brown Simpson but won't give the killer's name because (I quote from memory) "this person likes to see his name in print and I won't give him the satisfaction." Yeah, right ... It seems clear enough that she is not giving the name because a) she doesn't want to be sued, and b) she doesn't want to be nailed down to a specific person. The way she phrased it, the "real killer" could be Simpson or Mark Fuhrman or anybody else, so she's safe on both counts.
Fourth, speak with absolute assurance at all times. On the Montel show in 2002, Browne predicted that the killer of Chandra Levy (the Washington intern whose disappearance became a major national news story) would be brought to justice by the end of the summer. But that summer and two more have come and gone, and the case remains unsolved. Still, she sounded completely sure of herself when she said it, and the audience murmured its approval.
Fifth, if caught in a mistake, back and fill as nimbly as possible. During the Iraq war, Browne said authoritatively that Saddam Hussein was dead. When he turned up alive and hiding in his "spider hole," Browne explained that she had seen Hussein underground, and that's why she thought he was dead.
Sixth, rely on a lack of information on the part of your audience. Browne has predicted that America will scrap its constitutional system and revert to the form of democracy practiced in ancient Greece. The ancient Greeks used to bring all eligible voters together in a public forum and decide issues by a show of hands. It is unclear how this approach will work in a nation of 280 million people. But Browne knows that most audience members have no knowledge of ancient Greek politics and will not question her claim. Similarly, Browne says that the Earth's "polar tilt" is responsible for dangerous climate change. I have no idea what this means, and neither does she. But a fair number of people will take the statement at face value.
Browne likes to project a caring, motherly persona, but occasionally the mask slips. Take the time when she appeared on Larry King's show along with James Randi, the well-known skeptic who is her archnemesis. Although I am no particular fan of Randi, I couldn't help siding with him against Browne's rather obvious attempt at intimidation. This took place when Randi asked Browne to back up her oft-repeated claim that she has worked with the police to solve crimes. She responded that she was currently working with Stephen Xanthos of the Rumson, New Jersey, police. Now, some years ago, when Randi lived in New Jersey, he became involved in a dispute with Officer Xanthos of the Middletown PD (not the same town as Rumson, but close-by). Browne was obviously making an underhanded reference to that event. And she could not have been working with Xanthos in any official capacity, because Xanthos lost his job with the police long before the Larry King broadcast. Her statement was nothing but a hamfisted attempt at a veiled insult, or maybe a hint that she would bring up the Xanthos incident unless Randi backed down.
Browne likes to say that she has lived many previous lifetimes - she gives a precise number, another specific datum that can't possibly be checked - and that she will not be incarnated again, since she is now ready to move on permanently to a higher plane. This, of course, implies that she possesses vast wisdom and a rare degree of spiritual enlightenment. But would an enlightened person resort to such transparent bullying? It seems doubtful.
Nevertheless, relying on her rules of thumb and her strangely charismatic persona, Browne has made herself a superstar. People believe in her. Maybe they would be less inclined to believe if they took a hard look at one aspect of her performance that can be checked - her annual predictions.
Below are some of these predictions, culled from various sources (which I link to). The list is not a representative sample. I've left out most of the vague, ambiguous, or banal predictions that either can't be checked or could be easily foreseen by anyone. For instance, when Browne predicts minor seismic activity in New York State or California, she is not going out on much of a limb; both areas experience regular (usually minor) earthquakes. It's where Browne gets specific that her accuracy can be checked.
With that in mind, let's take a tour of some annual forecasts. First, Browne's predictions for 1998:
"The Pacific Northwest, near Seattle, will have an earthquake, around 5.4, in January."
"A very large earthquake in Madrid, about 7.8, in May."
"Volcanic eruption in Japan causes a poisonous cloud mass, around April."
None of these things happened.
"The non-stop destruction of the rain forests will release more and more harmful diseases into our atmosphere."
The destruction of the rain forests does not release diseases into the atmosphere.
"IBM creates a surprisingly good talk-savvy computer."
Didn't happen.
"Bill Clinton will be exonerated in the Paula Jones case. It will be uncovered that this was more like a conspiracy to corrupt his reputation."
He was not exonerated. He paid a large settlement, and was impeached.
"The Democrats will gain power again. Bill Clinton will again run for national office after a four-year break, and win."
The Republicans held on to Congress in 1998 (though only narrowly). Clinton cannot run for president again; there is a two-term limit. Perhaps Browne meant he would run for some other national office, such as senator. In any case, more than four years have passed, and Clinton has not run for any elective office.
"Hormonal therapy will be refined to create a new type of youth rejuvenator."
Nope.
"The triple cocktail used to treat AIDS will have a fourth ingredient added to put AIDS in full remission."
No fourth ingredient was added.
Browne's predictions for the year 2000:
"There will be extensive monitoring of the internet that will be imposed to govern and reduce indiscriminate pornography. This will be drastically different from the filtering software available now, along with harsh regulation."
It did not happen.
"There will be a definite crackdown by the Federal Government regarding frivolous lawsuits. This has been bantered around for a while, but now a definite crackdown is imposed."
No such crackdown occurred in 2000.
"NASA finally cuts back on the space program realizing that every time they send up a space vehicle they are tearing the ozone layer."
There is no evidence that space vehicles "are tearing up the ozone layer.
"Democrats will win the election with Bill Bradley, with close competition from the Reform Party."
Bill Bradley did not receive his party's nomination, let alone win the presidency. The Reform Party candidate, Pat Buchanan, came in a distant fourth with much less than 1% of the vote.
"Brad Pitt and Jennifer Anniston get married, but it lasts for only a short time."
Well, they did get married in 2000. And of course they recently broke up, after four years. The failure of a celebrity marriage is not too hard to foresee, I'm afraid.
"David Letterman decides to call it quits from his nightly late show after this year."
Nope. He is still doing the show.
"John Travolta has to be very careful flying his plane in February."
Here is a vague, meaningless prediction of the fortune cookie type. If Travolta had gotten into a mishap with his plane, Browne could claim success. If he didn't (and as far as I know he didn't), Browne could say she merely suggested he be "very careful."
"Courtney Cox will get pregnant this year and have a baby boy."
Cox (whose first name is actually spelled Courteney, with an e in the middle) did not give birth in 2000. She had her first baby in June, 2004. It was a girl.
Browne's predictions for 2004:
American troops will be pulled out of Iraq by June or July.
Our troops are still in Iraq.
Osama bin Laden is "dead as a doornail."
Bin Laden is believed to still be alive.
Julia Roberts's marriage will end.
She is still married.
Martha Stewart will not go to jail.
She did.
North Korea will launch nuclear weapons in 2004.
It did not.
The Pope will die.
Not in 2004. Of course, his age and obviously failing health made his imminent death easily predictable in any event.
Her predictions for the current year, 2005:
The death count after the tsunami in South East Asia will hit 417,000.
The toll was between 200,000 and 310,000, although to be fair, the full count is probably unknowable.
Stem cell research should be using umbilical chords and skin for its research instead of embryos.
I have to give her credit for possibly being right about this. Although umbilical cord stem cells had already been widely publicized, the use of skin stem cells is now being touted.
Medical surgery will start to use some kind of laser.
"Will" start? Laser surgery is nothing new. Hasn't Browne noticed that sales of eyeglasses are down?
Laser beams affecting the cockpits of aircraft are coming from other planes or satelites.
According to the Web site reporting these predictions: "Wrong ... A New Jersey man was released on $100,000 bail Tuesday 4th January after federal authorities accused him of pointing a laser beam at two aircraft last week." (Citing a CNN story.)
Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher will get married and have a baby.
Rumors are that Moore is pregnant, so this may turn out to be correct.
Britney Spears will become pregnant and her marriage will break up within a year.
Spears is pregnant. The marriage breakup is probably a safe bet.
Finally, on a radio talk show a few months ago, Browne was asked if we would ever learn what happened to the well-known atheist Madalyn Murray O'Hair, whose disappearance in 1995 made headlines. Browne reportedly answered that O'Hair's remains have not been found and will never be found, and the mystery will remain unsolved. Here we have a case of Browne not merely failing to foresee the future, but failing even to keep up with current events. In fact, O'Hair's body was found in 2001, buried at her Texas ranch, and her three killers are now in prison, having made a full confession.
Browne claims an accuracy rate of 87% in her forecasts. Like the other numbers she bandies about, this one appears to have been pulled out of thin air. If we discount meaningless predictions of the "sun will rise tomorrow" variety, her accuracy is far, far lower. And if we consider huge howlers like the Bill Bradley prophesy, the very idea that Browne has a special line on the future becomes laughable.
But it doesn't matter. Her fans will continue to forgive, forget, and believe. And she will go on raking in the money and smiling in the spotlight - the unsinkable Sylvia Browne.
That's one prediction you can take to the bank.
I personally have never even heard of Sylvia Browne, but I don't live in America so I guess she isn't that famous elsewhere.
On the note of paranormal fakery, there's a psychic/medium, Colin Fry, who holds his own show, 'Sixth Sense with Colin Fry' in a similar vein to John Edward's Crossing Over.
I have seen the show listed on television, but have never watched an actual episode; he appears to be quite famous for what he does. However, I remember a friend of mine telling me that he was clearly faking it with tricks like cold reading, etc.
I'd be curious to see what your impression of him is (assuming you've heard of him), since he's the only famous psychic I've actually seen or heard of on television.
Posted by: Brins | May 24, 2005 at 06:54 AM
Except for 2000, her predictions are liberal wish lists. Maybe she got so full of herself, she thought she could will that Democrat Goody Bag into happening.
"The Pope Will Die." Well, no shit. Who doesn't?
Posted by: DH | May 24, 2005 at 11:19 AM
Brins,
I've never actually seen Colin Fry, so I can't evaluate him. It is quite difficult to evaluate a psychic who performs on his own TV show in any event; since he controls the environment (and, on a taped show, the editing), there are definite opportunities for trickery. On the other hand, sometimes even TV psychics come up with information that does seem to be inexplicable by the standard skeptical arguments. I have not seen Sylvia Browne do this, but I have seen John Edward do it quite often - which is why I have a much, much higher opinion of Edward.
Is Edward legitimate? I have written three online essays on that topic and still have not reached a definite conclusion. The essays can be found at www.michaelprescott.net/essays.htm . If you want my gut feeling, it is that Edward does have legitimate abilities. I reserve the right to change my mind, though.
The best documented cases of mediumship are from a century ago, when mediums were willing to be tested for long periods of time under trying conditions. Leonora Piper of Boston and Gladys Osbourne-Leonard of England were both tested for over a decade (the latter for 20 years) by highly competent investigators. Neither was ever tainted by the faintest whiff of scandal. Eileen Garrett, an Irish medium, had a similar track record in the middle part of the 20th century. My essay "R-101," also found at the above Web page, covers one of Garrett's most famous cases.
I am by no means a skeptic, and I think the "cold reading, etc." type of argument cannot cover the better cases. But it's necessary to separate the wheat from the chaff - and there is a lot of chaff!
DH,
Yes, she seems to be quite liberal - though she hedged her bets in 2004 by predicting that Kerry would win the election on one show, and that Bush would win on another!
Posted by: Michael Prescott | May 24, 2005 at 11:38 AM
Again ... why do people think just because she predicted for the year it will happen for THAT year? "The Pope Will Die" ... she NEVER said WHEN ... but he passed away in April 2005 ... just because it didn't happen in 2004 does not mean it will not happen ... DUH
Posted by: Someone In Ohio | January 08, 2006 at 08:21 PM
>"The Pope Will Die" ... she NEVER said WHEN ... but he passed away in April 2005 ...
Everybody dies eventually. Unless there's a time limit on the prediction, it's meaningless. Isn't this obvious?
Posted by: Michael Prescott | January 10, 2006 at 09:35 PM
I WAS a believer of Sylvia Browne until what I recently read in one of her books. She says she saw a "real honest to god fairy" on a trip to Ireland! She seems to be confident that we will believe ANYTHING she makes up.
I am curious as to why you think John Edwards is real though- as he obviously can control his own shows. And also, what do you think of the Van Pragh guy?
Posted by: Suzanne Settle | August 01, 2006 at 07:41 PM
>I am curious as to why you think John Edwards is real though- as he obviously can control his own shows. And also, what do you think of the Van Pragh guy?
I have some essays about Edward at www.michaelprescott.net/essays.htm . He comes up with personal details that I think would be very hard to obtain by trickery.
I saw Van Praagh on a TV show once and wrote about it here. I was pretty impressed with him at the time, but as often happens, some doubts kicked in later.
Posted by: Michael Prescott | August 02, 2006 at 09:25 PM